What in the World is Happening with Ukraine?

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Wed September 17 @ 7:00 pm EDT An Online event

A look at the immediate and big picture developments that combine to bring us to the present situation in Ukraine which clarifies the issues that need to be resolved to end the war.

An eye-opening analysis of the underlying causes of the war which, if not addressed, stand in the way of a stable diplomatic settlement: NATO expansion, Kyiv’s repression of Russian speaking Ukrainians, dismissal of Russia’s core security interests, European and U.S. exclusion of Russia from the European security architecture. And on the other hand, Ukraine’s legitimate security concerns and need to protect its territorial integrity. Interestingly, George Beebe does not see the acquisition of Ukrainian territories as a Russia’s goal in fighting the war. Rather, he claims, the focus for Russia all along has been its security concerns as it understands them.

The presentation then turns to the issue of how to resolve these underlying causes in a way that leads to a diplomatic resolution of the war. Here the presentation opens us up to stretch our thinking about what compromises might be possible. Given the actual causes of the war, Russia’s real goals in conducting it, and Russia’s advances on the battlefield, Mr. Beebe sees certain elements of a solution as essential while others might be susceptible to compromise. Essential ones would be no NATO membership for Ukraine, an end to the exclusion of Russia from Europe, guarantees for Ukraine’s Russian speakers to their culture and religion, and negotiation of a new security architecture for Europe that includes Russia’s security concerns. This new security architecture based on the principle of common security would then open up the possibility of negotiations for nuclear and conventional arms control (which Putin brought up at the press conference after his Alaska meeting with Trump).

Areas of possible compromise that benefit Ukraine might be Russian approval of Ukraine joining the European Union, firm security guarantees from the countries of the U.N. security council (not NATO countries), which weapons and military training Ukraine could acquire, and long term compromises over territories now controlled or annexed by Russia.

In the midst of this analysis George Beebe will provide a critique of Trump’s policies and goals.We all have a lot to learn from this webinar which will help us get a better understanding of a Ukrainian crisis which remains the most likely trigger for terminal nuclear war if not resolved.

George Beebe is Director of Grand Strategy at the Quincy Institute. He spent more than two decades in government as an intelligence analyst, diplomat, and policy advisor, including as director of the CIA’s Russia analysis, director of the CIA’s Open Source Center, and as a staff advisor on Russia matters to Vice President Cheney. His book, The Russia Trap: How Our Shadow War with Russia Could Spiral into Nuclear Catastrophe (St. Martin’s Press, 2019), warned how the United States and Russia could stumble into a dangerous military confrontation. Prior to joining QI, George was Vice President and Director of Studies at the Center for the National Interest and before that he served as president of a technology company that measured the impact of events, issues, and advertising campaigns on audience views. He speaks Russian and German.

Sponsored by the Ukraine Campaign of Massachusetts Peace Action and the Campaign for Peace, Disarmament, and Common Security.

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